Election · Toronto mayoral election, 26 October 2026Simulated

Toronto votes on 26 October. How would our locals vote?

We gave the 50 Crowdsim locals who live across Toronto the whole ballot, every candidate's platform and record, with the campaign's news and no polls, and Crowdsim's engine picked each one's vote and how likely they are to get to a poll. Then we set the count beside the polls.

Updated 25 October with the news of the campaign to 24 October. The polls come first; everything after them is simulated, not a poll. Candidates are in alphabetical order, each with the same questions and the same space.

Nathan Phillips Square: the TORONTO sign and the curved towers of City Hall, seen under the arches by the reflecting pool — Photo: Roger Harris on Unsplash

The polls Observed

52 names are on the ballot, but only Chow and Bradford poll above a few points. The real result goes here after 26 October.

Average of the last five polls

Bradford45.2%

Chow49.2%

Others2–3%

Simple mean of the five polls fielded 6 to 10 Oct, after Alexander withdrew; mixes decided-only and all-respondent bases.

Each poll

PollsterDatesBradfordChow

Nanos Research2026-10-08 to 10-104751

Liaison Strategies2026-10-08 to 10-094651

Mainstreet Research2026-10-06 to 10-074447

Scope Research2026-10-064751

Forum Research2026-10-064246

Across the city Simulated

Every local where they live, ringed by what they'd likely do. 7 of Bradford's 8 likely voters live in the inner suburbs, and so do 10 of Chow's 12. Downtown is where her vote stays home: 5 of her backers there are unlikely to vote, against 1 who is likely to.

Toronto

Likely votes Bradford 8Likely votes Chow 12Likely stays home 26Can't vote 4

The crowd beside them Simulated

Each local stands for an equal share of their part of the city, and each counts by their chance of voting. They saw no polls before choosing.

50locals live in Toronto

46can vote

20likely to vote

45%turnout (2022: 29.7%)

Share of the vote

The crowd, weightedPoll average

CandidateShareGap

Alexandersecond choices only

0%–

Bradford8 of 20 likely voters

43.2%45.2%

−2

Chow12 of 20 likely voters

51.8%49.2%

+2.6

Otherssecond choices only

5%2–3%

Where it differs

Chow above the polls, Bradford below+2.6 and −2

Chow has more backers (25 to 21), and enough of them are likely to vote to keep her ahead, by 8.6 points against about 4 in the polls.

A homeowners' and renters' race17 of 21

of Bradford's backers own their home and talk about the property tax; Chow's are mostly renters and transit riders.

The other names5%

Nobody picks them first. Their share comes from second choices: the count gives a little of each unsure vote to the second choice.

All 50 locals, by what they'd likely do

Bradford8

Chow12

Likely stay home26

Can't vote4

Candidate by candidate Simulated

The same three questions for both front-runners, then three locals: two who back them and one who has them as a second choice.

Brad Bradford

In the crowd43.2%8 likely voters In the polls45.2%6 to 10 Oct

Observed City councillor for Beaches–East York since 2018. Ran for mayor in the 2023 by-election.

Why people chose them, who had them second, and three localsShow less

Why people chose them

The property tax10

Opening the books6

Safer streets2

The land transfer tax2

The property tax above everything: 17 of his 21 backers own their home and name three years of rises. Small-business owners and condo-board treasurers want the books opened line by line.

Who had them second

Backs Chow14

14 locals had Bradford as their second choice. A little of each unsure vote goes to the second choice in the count.

Will their backers vote?

8 of 21 likely to

Fewer backers than Chow, and most of them homeowners who skip city races.

On a fixed pension with rising condo fees and property tax, she wants the books balanced and a freeze, not another Chow increase.

Marian · The AnnexLikely votes Bradford

She voted Tory and Bailão, pays her property tax in six careful instalments, and a freeze means the windows might not have to wait.

Yuk-Lan · AgincourtLikely votes Bradford

She wants public investment in schools and likes the lunch program, and the tax hikes don't pinch a comfortable household enough to switch.

Leah · LeasideHad Bradford second, likely votes Chow

Olivia Chow

In the crowd51.8%12 likely voters In the polls49.2%6 to 10 Oct

Observed Mayor since winning the June 2023 by-election; before that a city councillor and an NDP MP. Property tax rose 9.5%, 6.9% and 2.2% in her three budgets.

Why people chose them, who had them second, and three localsShow less

Why people chose them

Bad landlords made to fix things9

Fares and transit7

Services over a tax freeze7

Bike lanes2

Renters and transit riders: landlords made to fix things, the fare cap, the bike lanes. Some who could afford a tax break would rather keep the services.

Who had them second

Backs Bradford14

14 locals had Chow as their second choice. A little of each unsure vote goes to the second choice in the count.

Will their backers vote?

12 of 25 likely to

More backers than Bradford, and more of them likely to vote, though night shifts, two jobs and a weak habit keep many home.

Her landlord is pushing an above-guideline increase, and Chow's task force to inspect and bill bad landlords is exactly the fight she is in.

Hyacinth · Scarborough, near KennedyLikely votes Chow

Their family's car-free test depends on bike lanes, and Bradford's pledge to rip some out alongside Ford decides it.

Rowan · LeslievilleLikely votes Chow

She voted Tory and Bailão, pays her property tax in six careful instalments, and a freeze means the windows might not have to wait.

Yuk-Lan · AgincourtHad Chow second, likely votes Bradford

Everyone else on the ballot

Sarah McVie

Actor (Val on Workin' Moms) and organizer with the Black Creek Flood Coalition, on a listening tour of every ward. No detailed platform on housing, transit or budgets that we could find.

Lyall Sanders

Métis teacher and activist running on landlord-tenant problems and financial hardship. Came 12th of 102 in the 2023 by-election.

The other 50 names, and Alexander

52 names are on the ballot. Only Chow and Bradford poll above a few points: the other 50 get about 2 to 3% between them (Nanos 2, Liaison 3, Scope 3; Mainstreet and Forum fold them into other or undecided at 9 and 12). Chris Alexander, the former federal immigration minister, was the only other candidate in the debates and polled 4 to 11% before he withdrew on 6 October. Withdrawal came after the deadline, so his name stays on the ballot.

Also running: Bahira Abdulsalam, Edward Gong, Robert Shusterman, Naomi Sayers, Kevin Clarke, Peter Handjis, Heather He, and about 40 more. Renato Fallico (7 August) and Kannan S'ree Jr (19 August) withdrew before the deadline and are off the ballot. No local marks any of them first; 18 name one as their second choice and 0 name Alexander, which gives them 5% between them in the count.

Who stays home, and why Simulated

26 of the 46 who can vote are unlikely to, mostly because of shifts or a weak habit of voting in city races. 4 more can't vote: they aren't citizens yet.

Why they're likely to stay home

Work and shifts 9Rarely votes in city races 11Mind on other things, or away 2Family and caring 2Health or getting there 2

Turnout by life stage

Retired57%

Empty nest52%

School-age children40%

Settled42%

Starting out36%

Student26%

Young children41%

If everyone voted

Bradford43.2 → 43.4

Chow51.8 → 51.6

Likely votersIf all 46 did

13 of the 26 likely to stay home lean Chow, so the race barely changes if everyone votes.

He has voted in every recent city election, but after an overnight shift and a 70-minute ride home, staying up until polls open at 10 cuts into his sleep.

Tharshan · MalvernLikely stays home · leans Chow

With a borrowed, wobbly walker he limits himself to one careful outing a week, and he has skipped the last couple of municipal votes.

Lionel · Moss ParkLikely stays home · leans Chow

He has never voted, and the daycare pickup race eats his evenings, though transit and child care promises speak to him.

Tobias · Humber Bay ShoresLikely stays home · leans Chow

Show all 6Show fewer

She has a comfortable office job and a civic streak from the condo board, but she has never voted municipally.

Yasmin · Downtown (condo tower)Likely stays home · leans Bradford

He is often in Montreal on Mondays and has barely voted in years, and he catches the race only as headlines at the gate.

Marcus · Toronto (inferred: flies out of Toronto weekly; home not stated)Likely stays home · leans Chow

He works overnights, sleeps days and has two toddlers, he has skipped recent votes, though property tax on his underwater townhouse comes up on his talk radio.

Navin · Morningside HeightsLikely stays home · leans Bradford

What was in the air Context

Each local read the campaign's news and the cost of living from dated public sources, and nothing after 24 October.

The campaign, 15 August to 24 October

Money · to 1 OctBradford's tax freeze runs into Chow's inflation-only increases
Campaign · to 14 OctProvince rips out Bloor bike lanes mid-campaign; protesters arrested
Campaign · to 6 OctAlexander quits as advance voting opens; race is now two-way
Money · to 9 OctHousing split: Chow targets landlords, Bradford cuts land transfer tax
Money · to 11 SepChow promises free TTC rides after 10 paid trips weekly
Services · to 12 OctChow promises school lunch for all; who pays is unclear
What people say · to 13 OctDebate commenters complain about taxes and dislike both candidates
Safety · to 14 OctSafety and policing split voters: fear versus 'more cops' fatigue
What people say · to 14 OctOnline left attacks Bradford over data centres, temperament, Ford ties
Campaign · to 23 OctFinal debate: missed housing target against a debt-funded tax freeze
Campaign · to 21 OctBradford's water-bill cut becomes a fight over public control
Safety · to 22 OctBradford's 100-day plan: 1,000 police, an officer per subway station
Money · to 19 OctHousing offers split renters and homeowners
Campaign · to 21 OctFord's Bloor bike lane removal turns city control into a ballot issue
What voters want · to 15 OctVoters came in wanting affordability, housing, safety and transit
Campaign · to 24 OctLate scrutiny of both candidates' character and record
Campaign · to 23 Oct53 names on the ballot, including Alexander after he quit
What people say · to 24 OctCommenters fixate on Ford, water, tax hikes and TTC disorder

The cost of living

Canada lost 110,000 jobs in two months
Tariff war is costing jobs, with a car-tariff threat next
Confidence is flat and most expect inflation to rise
Inflation is stuck at 3%, led by transportation
Grocery talk is dominated by 'corporate greed' and smaller carts
Pandemic-era mortgages are renewing at hundreds more a month
Asking rents have fallen for two straight years
Buy-Canadian habit holds, especially for food
Food bank demand keeps setting records

How this was done

The polls were gathered first and kept apart. Crowdsim's engine then read every local the whole ballot as it was on 25 October: Bradford, Chow, Alexander (withdrawn, still on the ballot) and the other names, each with their own platform and record, plus the campaign's news from 15 August to 24 October (no polls) and the cost-of-living backdrop. It picked each local's first and second choice and how firmly they hold it, then scored how likely each is to get to a poll. Each local also carries a measured view on immigration levels, drawn from the Canadian Election Study 2025 for people like them, and the engine is told to keep each person's views as they hold them, not softened. Each vote counts by the local's weight and chance of voting, shared between first and second choice by how firm it is; both rules were fitted on 11 past elections, not this one.

Limits

The crowd is small: 46 locals can vote and 20 are likely to, so one changed mind moves a candidate's share by two to four points.
Each local stands for an equal share of their part of the city (ward groups from the 2021 Census), not for who tends to turn out.
The engine has a known lean: in backtests on 11 past elections it missed each candidate's share by about 5 points on average, and Toronto's three past mayoral races by about 7.
Each line beside a local is the engine's own reason, not a real person's words. The reason charts are those lines, sorted by hand into a few kinds.
25 of the locals were drafted for this race on 15 October to fill out the suburbs and homeowners; their voting histories are drawn from Elections Canada, Elections Ontario, the City's results and the Canadian Election Study.
Read it as a picture of why people lean the way they do, not a forecast.

Sources

All accessed 15 October 2026. Wards: City of Toronto open data. Ward populations: City of Toronto ward profiles, 2021 Census (25-ward model), custom tabulation; adults 18+ = everyone 20 and over plus 0.4 of the 15-19 group.