Election · English local elections, 7 May 2026Simulated
England voted in May. Would our locals have voted the same way?
On 7 May 2026, 136 councils across England elected about 5,066 councillors. We gave the 123 Crowdsim locals who live there the same campaign, with no results or polls, and Crowdsim's engine picked each one's vote and how likely they were to get to a poll. Then we set the count beside the real result.
The real result comes first; everything after it is simulated. Parties are in alphabetical order, each with the same questions and the same space.
Every London borough, 32 metropolitan boroughs, 18 unitaries, six delayed counties and 48 districts voted, after a Reform UK legal challenge ended the planned postponements.
Councillors elected
PartySeatsChange since last foughtCouncils
801−563−6
587+411 to +441+5
1,068−1,496−38
844+155+1
1,453+1,451+14
Independents248+3–
One dot is ten councillors. Changes compare with 2022, before Reform UK stood in most places.
Projected national share
17%
18%
17%
16%
26%
The BBC's estimate of how Great Britain would have voted, built from English results. Sky's early estimate differed by up to five points.
6borough mayors elected
32.5–47.7%turnout in ten councils we could check
Across England Simulated
Every local who lives where councils voted, coloured by what they'd likely do, with London enlarged. Shaded areas had a council election on 7 May; the rest of England didn't vote this year.
EnglandConservative 6Green 7Labour 5Lib Dem 6Reform UK 7Local group 1Likely stay home 87Couldn't vote 4A council election on 7 May
The crowd beside it Simulated
Each local stands for UK adults like them, so shares are weighted, and each counts by their chance of voting. They saw no results or polls before choosing.
123locals live where councils voted
119could vote
32likely to vote
35.5%turnout (real: 32.5–47.7%)
Share of the vote
The crowd, weightedBBC projection
PartyShareGap
6 of 32 likely voters
17.7%17%
+0.7
7 of 32 likely voters
17.5%18%
−0.5
5 of 32 likely voters
19.6%17%
+2.6
6 of 32 likely voters
14%16%
−2
7 of 32 likely voters
25.4%26%
−0.6
Independents1 of 32 likely voters
5.7%~6%
−0.3
Where it differs
Labour 2.6 points high+2.6
On first choices alone Labour is at 15.8%, a little under the projection's 17%. The rest is second choices: 14 of 17 Green backers and 8 of Reform's 36 have Labour second.
The Lib Dems 2 points low−2
Only 13 of the 119 back them, the fewest of the five parties, though their backers are the likeliest to vote.
Reform, the Greens, the Conservatives and independents within a point
Reform has the most backers, 36 of the 119, and 27 of them mention immigration. Most rarely vote, so only 7 are likely to.
All 123 locals, by what they'd likely do
6
7
5
6
7
Independents1
Likely stay home87
Couldn't vote4
Party by party Simulated
The same three questions for every party, then three locals: two who backed it and one who had it as their second choice.
Conservatives
In the crowd17.7%6 likely votersOn the day17%801 seats
Observed Lost 563 seats but beat expectations: the projected share rose two points, Westminster was won back, and Bromley, Bexley and Harrow were held.
Why people chose them, who had them second, and three localsShow less
Why people chose them
Tax and spending7
Loyalty6
Law, order and values3
Fewer immigrants2
Let down by Labour2
Money and habit: lower taxes and sound money, from farm inheritance relief to stamp duty, and lifelong Conservatives staying put, some of them tempted by Reform on immigration.
Who had them second
Backed Reform UK20
Backed Lib Dem8
Backed Labour3
Backed a local group1
32 locals had the Conservatives as their second choice. A little of each unsure vote goes to the second choice in the count.
Will their backers vote?
6 of 20 likely to
Their likely voters are nearly all retired people who vote every time; their younger backers mostly don't.
Harrow's Conservatives match her thrift and her wish for lower immigration, and she backed them in 2024.
Habit and sound-money instincts keep her Conservative for now, though Reform's tough line on immigration tugs at her.
Hilary · Reydon, near Southwold, SuffolkLikely votes Conservative
Tory voter who wants far fewer immigrants and the flag respected, and he's sick of Labour-run Manchester and of being fleeced, so he goes for Reform.
Geoffrey · Didsbury, ManchesterHad the Conservatives second, likely votes Reform UK
Green Party
In the crowd17.5%7 likely votersOn the day18%587 seats
Observed The biggest rise in share, up seven points to 18%. Won Hackney and Lewisham with both mayoralties, plus Waltham Forest, Hastings and Norwich.
Why people chose them, who had them second, and three localsShow less
Why people chose them
Housing and renters8
A message to Labour5
Loyalty3
Taxing the rich, fairness1
Rent and housing first, then a message to Labour from people who feel it let them down, and a few who vote Green every time.
Who had them second
Backed Labour13
Backed Reform UK2
Backed Lib Dem1
Backed a local group1
17 locals had the Greens as their second choice. A little of each unsure vote goes to the second choice in the count.
Will their backers vote?
7 of 17 likely to
Many are young renters and new voters, and most of them are unlikely to get to a poll.
She has voted Green every time lately and likes their tolerance and lower-bills pitch, especially with Labour having taken pensioners' winter fuel away.
Philomena · Feltham, HounslowLikely votes Green
She has voted Green twice and wants energy firms reined in and help for households like hers stuck on oil, so she stays put.
Alison · Fernhurst, near Haslemere, West SussexLikely votes Green
He still believes in Labour's case for funding councils properly, but a year fighting Suffolk over his son's EHCP and the worry about the government's SEND plans leave him only just sticking with them.
Chidi · Rushmere St Andrew, IpswichHad the Greens second, likely votes Labour
Labour
In the crowd19.6%5 likely votersOn the day17%1,068 seats
Observed Lost about 1,500 seats and 38 councils, yet still runs more councils than any other party. Keir Starmer announced his resignation on 22 June.
Why people chose them, who had them second, and three localsShow less
Why people chose them
Delivered something for me9
Public services and fair pay9
Loyalty8
Safer for migrants1
Things people could feel, from free school meals and funded childcare to the two-child limit gone, alongside long loyalty and a belief in public services and fair pay.
Who had them second
Backed Green14
Backed Reform UK8
Backed Conservative4
Backed Lib Dem4
33 locals had Labour as their second choice. A little of each unsure vote goes to the second choice in the count.
Will their backers vote?
5 of 27 likely to
The second most backers, after Reform, but the fewest likely to vote: nearly half have never voted or rarely do.
He still believes in Labour's case for funding councils properly, but a year fighting Suffolk over his son's EHCP and the worry about the government's SEND plans leave him only just sticking with them.
Chidi · Rushmere St Andrew, IpswichLikely votes Labour
The new renters' rights are the only reason he can challenge his £300 rent hike at a tribunal, so he sticks with Labour despite his doubts.
Yusuf · Stoke Newington, HackneyLikely votes Labour
Fed up with the traffic filter permit maths and Labour's national record, he goes back to the Lib Dems he backed before as the community-minded choice.
Kwame · Headington, OxfordHad Labour second, likely votes Lib Dem
Liberal Democrats
In the crowd14%6 likely votersOn the day16%844 seats
Observed Gained 155 seats and won Stockport, Portsmouth, both new Surrey councils, and Sutton, Kingston and Richmond, while losing their majority in Hull.
Why people chose them, who had them second, and three localsShow less
Why people chose them
Runs things sensibly locally5
The one that can win here4
Liberal values3
A message to Labour1
A party that runs things sensibly where they live, and the one that can actually win there, from Woking to Acocks Green.
Who had them second
Backed Labour7
Backed Conservative5
Backed Green3
15 locals had the Lib Dems as their second choice. A little of each unsure vote goes to the second choice in the count.
Will their backers vote?
6 of 13 likely to
Nearly half are likely to vote, the most of any party, mostly retired people or those whose children have grown up; most of the rest rarely vote or never have.
Fed up with the traffic filter permit maths and Labour's national record, he goes back to the Lib Dems he backed before as the community-minded choice.
Kwame · Headington, OxfordLikely votes Lib Dem
She's a firm liberal who has voted Lib Dem twice and likes their line on local producers, sewage and decency.
Helen · Ditchling, East SussexLikely votes Lib Dem
Harrow's Conservatives match her thrift and her wish for lower immigration, and she backed them in 2024.
In the crowd25.4%7 likely votersOn the day26%1,453 seats
Observed The largest party on votes and seats, up about 1,450 councillors and a net 14 councils, among them Sunderland, Essex, Suffolk and Havering.
Why people chose them, who had them second, and three localsShow less
Why people chose them
Change from who's in charge16
Immigration and crime13
Tax, bills and waste4
Loyalty3
A vote against whoever is in charge, nationally or at the council, and for most of them, far fewer immigrants.
Who had them second
Backed Conservative11
Backed Labour4
15 locals had Reform UK as their second choice. A little of each unsure vote goes to the second choice in the count.
Will their backers vote?
7 of 36 likely to
The most backers of any party, but most have never voted or rarely do, so only a few are likely to get to a poll.
Tory voter who wants far fewer immigrants and the flag respected, and he's sick of Labour-run Manchester and of being fleeced, so he goes for Reform.
Geoffrey · Didsbury, ManchesterLikely votes Reform UK
She has backed Farage's party twice, and Lancashire's Reform council kept its rise down, which is good enough for her.
Joanne · Euxton, ChorleyLikely votes Reform UK
Habit and sound-money instincts keep her Conservative for now, though Reform's tough line on immigration tugs at her.
Hilary · Reydon, near Southwold, SuffolkHad Reform UK second, likely votes Conservative
Independents and residents' groups
5 locals back an independent or residents' group, one each in Birmingham, Haringey, Havering, Sandwell and Tower Hamlets; in Birmingham it's over the bin strike. On the day, Aspire held Tower Hamlets and independents did well in Oldham, Blackburn, Kirklees and Bradford.
A year of bin bags piled to the gate under a Labour council has worn out his old loyalty, and a local independent who talks about bins and council tax gets his cross.
Desmond · Erdington, BirminghamLikely votes for a local independent
In Havering the residents' group is the local name she trusts to back small family businesses like hers and keep the council tax in check.
Lucia · Hornchurch, HaveringLeans to Havering's residents' group
Who stayed home, and why Simulated
87 of the 119 who could vote are unlikely to, mostly because of shifts, never having voted, or young children. 4 more couldn't vote at all.
Why they're likely to stay home
Work and shifts 31Family and caring 16Health or getting there 4Never voted, or rarely 25Not interested in the council 11
Turnout by life stage
Retired55%
Empty nest44%
School-age children24%
Settled28%
Starting out31%
Student23%
Young children24%
If everyone had voted
17.7 → 17.3
17.5 → 15.2
19.6 → 23.8
14 → 11
25.4 → 28
Likely votersIf all 119 had
Had everyone voted, Labour and Reform UK would gain most, since their backers are the least likely to turn out.
Knowledge runs from 6am, courier shifts and a young son leave little slack, and she has never voted in any recent election.
Elif · Stoke Newington, HackneyLikely stays home · leans Green
He works some days from home and has plenty of slack, but he has never voted and only trains catch his attention.
Tendai · Lindley, HuddersfieldLikely stays home · leans Lib Dem
She has never voted before and three workdays plus two small kids leave little slack, though she'd care about childcare costs.
Kasia · Rodbourne, SwindonLikely stays home · leans Labour
Show all 6Show fewer
Caring for his wife with dementia makes leaving the flat hard, and he votes only now and then.
Mehmet · Wood Green, HaringeyLikely stays home · leans to a local group
She turned out in 2024 after skipping 2019, is squeezed by bills including the council tax rise, and her school hours leave the evening free.
Bev · Coseley, DudleyLikely stays home · leans Reform UK
He did vote in the 2024 mayoral race, but his visa-clock job hunt leaves little room to care about Hounslow council.
Karthik · Hounslow West, HounslowLikely stays home · leans Conservative
What would get them out Simulated
We asked the engine again who would vote, once with nothing changed and then with one thing changed for everyone, one at a time. Asking again moves a few people on its own, so each change is measured against that. A postal vote does most: 10 more of the 87 likely to stay home would vote, and turnout rises from 38% to 46.4%. A message on their own issue, or knowing the ward is close, adds a point or two.
Turnout with each change
Asked again, nothing changed38.0%
A postal vote46.4%
A message on their own issue40.3%
Knowing it's close39.9%
Nobody's choice changes; only whether they get there.
Who a postal vote reaches
Health or getting there (3)19 pts
Family and caring (16)13 pts
Work and shifts (31)11 pts
Never voted, or rarely (25)4 pts
Not interested in the council (11)4 pts
Average rise in their chance of voting beyond asking again, by why they'd stay home. It frees people held back by shifts, children or health; people who never vote barely move.
Where the extra postal votes go
10.5%
21.3%
22.8%
7.2%
35%
Independents3.2%
35% of the extra votes would go to Reform UK, against 25.4% of the votes the crowd casts now: many of the people a postal vote frees up lean Reform.
He votes regularly, the postal ballot gets round his twelve-hour shifts, and the council tax rise gives him some reason to bother.
Jamie · Kingswood, HullWith a postal vote: 35% → 57% likely to vote · leans Reform UK
She votes regularly, but with her husband away and two kids to run alone, she only follows the local race loosely.
Sharon · Plympton, PlymouthWith a postal vote: 17% → 50% likely to vote · leans Labour
A lapsed Labour voter in Birmingham, where the bin strike and the roads are what everyone talks about; the postal ballot gets round her early shifts and the kids.
Lisa · Washwood Heath, BirminghamWith a postal vote: 40% → 61% likely to vote · leans Green
What was in the air Context
Each local was read against the weeks before polling day, from dated public sources.
16 FebGovernment drops plans to postpone 30 councils' elections after legal advice, following a Reform UK challenge.
26 FebGreens win the Gorton and Denton by-election (Hannah Spencer 14,980; Reform second, Labour third).
19 MarConservatives launch: "the only party with a plan", tax cuts on stamp duty, fuel and business rates.
24 MarLib Dems launch in Surrey: GP and dentist access, sewage, energy bills, high streets, potholes.
26 MarReform launches, "Britain is broken, Britain needs Reform"; says it will throw everything at Birmingham; London targets Bromley, Bexley, Havering, Barking and Dagenham.
31 MarLabour launches in Wolverhampton; local manifestos lead on council homes (Birmingham, Sheffield, Crawley) and hardship funds (Enfield).
6 AprTwo-child limit on Universal Credit ends; the extra sickness element for new claimants falls to £50 a week.
9 AprFull Fact: Reform-majority councils raised council tax 3.94% on average for 2026/27, the lowest of any party group, but none cut or froze it despite some 2025 local pledges.
10 AprGreens launch in Deptford: affordable and social housing, rent controls, lower bills, taxing the super-rich, attacks on developer lobbying.
6 MayStarmer's eve-of-poll message: "progress" vs Reform's "anger and division" and the Greens' "empty promises".
How this was done
The real results were gathered first and kept apart. Crowdsim's engine then read every local the whole ballot as it was on 6 May (each party's own pitch and record, and the news of those weeks, with no polls or results) and picked their first and second choice and how firmly they hold it, then scored how likely each was to get to a poll. Each local also carries a measured view on immigration levels, from the Ipsos immigration attitudes tracker for people like them, and the engine was told to keep each person's views as they hold them, not to soften them. Each vote counts by the local's weight and chance of voting, shared between first and second choice by how firm it is; both rules were fitted on 11 past elections, not this one. Only then was the count set beside the real figures.
Limits
The crowd is small: 119 locals could vote and 32 are likely to, so one changed mind moves a party's share by one to three points.
The engine didn't return a choice for Lewis, so the shares are counted without that vote, as in the engine's own count.
Each local stands for UK adults like them by life stage, money and home, not for the electorate of these councils or who tends to turn out.
The locals are spread unevenly: none in an East Midlands council that voted, two in the South West, and London is about a quarter.
The engine has a known lean: in backtests on 11 past elections it missed each party's share by about 5 points on average. Here its biggest miss is Labour, 2.6 points high.
Each local was assumed to have a contest on the day. Wards that skip a year where councils elect by thirds or halves weren't checked.
Eligibility follows gov.uk. Andrei, Bikash, Marisol and Matteo couldn't vote.
Each local's chance of voting comes from the engine's turnout step (how easy it is for them, their habit and their interest), calibrated on 11 past elections, not set to hit this one.
The real figures come mainly from Wikipedia, OnLondon, CIPD and Pollcheck. The BBC's own pages couldn't be reached, and there's no official England-wide turnout.
Each line beside a local is the engine's own reason for their choice or for staying home, not a real person's words. The reason charts are those lines, sorted by hand into a few kinds.
