Election · Alberta referendum, 19 October 2026Simulated
Alberta votes on ten questions. How would our locals answer?
Alberta answers ten questions on Monday 19 October. We gave the 46 Crowdsim locals who live there every question as it is on the ballot, with the campaign's news and no polls, and Crowdsim's engine picked each one's answer and how likely they are to get to a poll. Then we set the count beside the polls.
Updated 25 October 2026: the unofficial count, about 99% counted, beside the crowd and the polls as they were published before the vote: the crowd was closer on 7 of 10. See the count.
The polls come first; everything after them is simulated, not a poll. The questions are in ballot order, each with the same space.
The count, beside the crowd and the polls Observed
Elections Alberta's unofficial count as of 25 October 2026, 12:47 p.m. MT, with every question about 99% counted, beside the crowd and the polls exactly as they were published before the vote.
7 of 10questions where the crowd was closer to the count than the polls
9.3 vs 11.8points off the count on average: the crowd, then the polls
4 of 10questions with a majority no; the crowd and the polls had yes on all 4
Yes (remain on question 10), question by question
The countThe crowd, before the voteThe polls, decided voters only50%: the majority line
30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
1Control over immigrationMajority yes54.9%crowd closer
2Programs for citizens, permanent residents and Alberta-approved statusMajority yes52.6%crowd closer
3A 12-month wait for temporary residentsMajority yes53.1%crowd closer
4A fee for temporary residents' health care and schoolsMajority yes51.9%crowd closer
5Proof of citizenship to voteMajority yes58.1%crowd closer
6Provinces pick superior court judgesMajority no45.3%crowd closer
7Abolish the SenateMajority no47.3%polls closer
8Opt out of federal programs and keep the moneyMajority no42.3%polls closer
9Provincial laws over federal onesMajority no44.5%crowd closer
10Remain a province, or start the process toward separationMajority remain74.9%polls closer
The exact numbers
QuestionCountCrowdPollsCrowd offPolls off
1 Control over immigration54.960.868.3+5.9+13.4
2 Programs for citizens, permanent residents and Alberta-approved status52.655.365.4+2.7+12.8
3 A 12-month wait for temporary residents53.161.269.8+8.1+16.7
4 A fee for temporary residents' health care and schools51.95868.2+6.1+16.3
5 Proof of citizenship to vote58.165.473.3+7.3+15.2
6 Provinces pick superior court judges45.356.659.2+11.3+13.9
7 Abolish the Senate47.371.754.2+24.4+6.9
8 Opt out of federal programs and keep the money42.356.150.3+13.8+8
9 Provincial laws over federal ones44.552.358.2+7.8+13.7
10 Remain a province, or start the process toward separation74.98076.1+5.1+1.2
Crowd: the engine's run, published 16 October. Polls: the averages below, counting decided voters only. "Off" is how far each landed from the count; the closer of the two is in bold. Count: Alberta.io live count (Elections Alberta data).
What we make of it
Closer than the polls on 7 of 109.3 vs 11.8
Average points off the count: the crowd, then the polls. Widest on immigration, questions 1 to 5.
Majority no on questions 6 to 94 of 4
Courts, the Senate, opting out and provincial laws first. The crowd and the polls had a yes majority on all four.
Too much yes, everywhere10 of 10
Both the crowd and the polls had more yes (remain on 10) than the count on every question.
The Senate is the big miss71.7% vs 47.3%
The crowd's yes against the count. Two reruns after the vote didn't close it; we're still looking for why.
It leaned the government's way10 of 10
Backtests had the engine leaning left. Here it sat on the government's side. One vote isn't enough to call it a change.
Still unofficial86%
Of expected ballots counted, the rest mostly mail-in. The official count goes here when it's certified.
The polls Observed
Support and opposition in the published polls, in %. Questions 1 to 9 were polled in August and September; question 10 by Léger, 2 to 4 October. The count is at the top.
Yes (remain on 10)Not sureNo (start the process on 10)
1Control over immigration
Research Co.651026
Angus Reid Institute62833
2Programs for citizens, permanent residents and Alberta-approved status
Research Co.581032
Angus Reid Institute6131
3A 12-month wait for temporary residents
Research Co.601426
4A fee for temporary residents' health care and schools
Research Co.601328
5Proof of citizenship to vote
Research Co.66924
6Provinces pick superior court judges
Research Co.452331
7Abolish the Senate
Research Co.392833
8Opt out of federal programs and keep the money
Research Co.411840
Angus Reid Institute4444
9Provincial laws over federal ones
Research Co.462033
10Remain a province, or start the process toward separation
Léger70722
For question 10 the Léger figures are remain, start the process. Éric Grenier's average of the October polls is 70 to 22.
Across Alberta Simulated
Every local where they live, over Alberta's counties and municipal districts, ringed by how they'd likely answer question 10: remain a province, or start the process toward a separation referendum.
AlbertaLikely votes to remain 29Likely votes to start the process 3Likely stays home 12Can't vote 2
The crowd beside them Simulated
Each local stands for the Alberta adults most like them, and each counts by their chance of voting. They saw no polls before answering. Written before the vote, on 16 October.
46locals live in Alberta
44can vote
32likely to vote
62.6%turnout on question 10
Yes (or remain), question by question
The crowd, weightedThe polls, decided voters only
QuestionSharevs polls
1Control over immigration
Yes 60.8%68.3%
−7.5
2Programs for citizens, permanent residents and Alberta-approved status
Yes 55.3%65.4%
−10.1
3A 12-month wait for temporary residents
Yes 61.2%69.8%
−8.6
4A fee for temporary residents' health care and schools
Yes 58%68.2%
−10.2
5Proof of citizenship to vote
Yes 65.4%73.3%
−7.9
6Provinces pick superior court judges
Yes 56.6%59.2%
−2.6
7Abolish the Senate
Yes 71.7%54.2%
+17.5
8Opt out of federal programs and keep the money
Yes 56.1%50.3%
+5.8
9Provincial laws over federal ones
Yes 52.3%58.2%
−5.9
10Remain a province, or start the process toward separation
Remain 80%76.1%
+3.9
Where it differs
Written before the vote, crowd against polls.
The immigration questions8.9 points below the polls
Questions 1 to 5: polls 65.4 to 73.3% yes, the crowd 55.3 to 65.4%.
Abolishing the Senate17.5 points above
71.7% yes in the crowd against about 54.2% in the polls, where many were unsure.
Close on question 6within a couple of points
Provinces pick superior court judges.
Question 10remain 80%
Against about 76.1% in the polls, decided voters only.
All 46 locals, by how they'd likely answer question 10
Likely remain29
Likely start the process3
Likely stay home12
Can't vote2
Question by question Simulated
Each question in its ballot words, the crowd beside the polls, then what each answer means, how many locals chose it, and three of them in their own reasons.
Question 1
Control over immigration
In the crowd60.8%yesIn the polls68.3%yes, decided votersThe count54.9%Majority yes
30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
Ballot “Do you support the Government of Alberta taking increased control over immigration for the purposes of decreasing immigration to more sustainable levels, prioritizing economic migration and giving Albertans first priority on new employment opportunities?” Not binding.
What each answer means, how firmly people hold it, and three localsShow less
Yes
Alberta seeks more say over immigration: fewer newcomers, more economic immigrants, and Albertans first in line for new jobs.
33 locals
15 of them firmly.
No
Immigration stays as it is, set mostly by Ottawa with Alberta's current programs.
11 locals
5 of them firmly.
Will they vote?
60%
The engine's turnout for this question, weighted. Each local's chance depends a little on how firmly they hold their answer.
He wants fewer immigrants and more provincial control, and figures someone has to pay for the billion a year in services.
Rolf · Lake Bonavista, CalgaryLikely votes yes
A former People's Party voter, he has long wanted lower immigration and more provincial say.
Ward · CalgaryLikely votes yes
She thinks Canada should take more immigrants, so a vote to cut numbers goes against what she believes.
Marisol · Calgary areaLikely votes no
Question 2
Programs for citizens, permanent residents and Alberta-approved status
In the crowd55.3%yesIn the polls65.4%yes, decided votersThe count52.6%Majority yes
30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
Ballot “Do you support the Government of Alberta introducing a law mandating that only Canadian citizens, permanent residents and individuals with an Alberta-approved immigration status will be eligible for provincially-funded programs, such as health care, education and other social services?” Not binding.
What each answer means, how firmly people hold it, and three localsShow less
Yes
A law limiting provincially funded programs, health care and schools included, to citizens, permanent residents and people with an Alberta-approved status.
28 locals
12 of them firmly.
No
Eligibility for provincial programs stays as it is.
16 locals
7 of them firmly.
Will they vote?
58.7%
The engine's turnout for this question, weighted. Each local's chance depends a little on how firmly they hold their answer.
He pays plenty of tax, sees over a billion a year going to temporary residents, and asks who's paying for it.
Rolf · Lake Bonavista, CalgaryLikely votes yes
A former People's Party voter who wants fewer immigrants, he sees provincial control over who gets services as plain common sense.
Ward · CalgaryLikely votes yes
As a teacher she can't accept a law that could keep some children out of a classroom because of their parents' paperwork.
Lynette · St. AlbertLikely votes no
Question 3
A 12-month wait for temporary residents
In the crowd61.2%yesIn the polls69.8%yes, decided votersThe count53.1%Majority yes
30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
Ballot “Assuming that all Canadian citizens and permanent residents continue to qualify for social support programs as they do now, do you support the Government of Alberta introducing a law requiring all individuals with a non-permanent legal immigration status to reside in Alberta for at least 12 months before qualifying for any provincially funded social support programs?” Not binding.
What each answer means, how firmly people hold it, and three localsShow less
Yes
People on temporary permits wait 12 months in Alberta before provincial social supports; citizens and permanent residents are unchanged.
32 locals
13 of them firmly.
No
No waiting period; social supports stay as they are.
12 locals
3 of them firmly.
Will they vote?
60.4%
The engine's turnout for this question, weighted. Each local's chance depends a little on how firmly they hold their answer.
He always asks who's paying, and with temporary residents costing over a billion a year he wants them to wait before drawing on programs.
Rolf · Lake Bonavista, CalgaryLikely votes yes
He backed the People's Party, wants fewer immigrants and believes in personal responsibility, so the waiting period suits him.
Ward · CalgaryLikely votes yes
He fights for supports for kids like his son, wants more immigrants, and won't vote to shut any family out of help for a year.
Omar · CalgaryLikely votes no
Question 4
A fee for temporary residents' health care and schools
In the crowd58%yesIn the polls68.2%yes, decided votersThe count51.9%Majority yes
30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
Ballot “Assuming that all Canadian citizens and permanent residents continue to qualify for public health care and education as they do now, do you support the Government of Alberta charging a reasonable fee or premium to individuals with a non-permanent immigration status living in Alberta for their and their family's use of the healthcare and education systems?” Not binding.
What each answer means, how firmly people hold it, and three localsShow less
Yes
People on temporary permits and their families pay a fee or premium for health care and schools; citizens and permanent residents are unchanged.
30 locals
10 of them firmly.
No
No new fee; health care and schools stay as they are for everyone.
14 locals
6 of them firmly.
Will they vote?
61.7%
The engine's turnout for this question, weighted. Each local's chance depends a little on how firmly they hold their answer.
He pays plenty in tax, wants fewer immigrants, and his first question about temporary residents using health care is who's paying for it.
Rolf · Lake Bonavista, CalgaryLikely votes yes
Out of work and wanting fewer immigrants, he figures people here on permits should pay their own way, not lean on services his family needs.
Brock · Red DeerLikely votes yes
An immigrant who thinks the current level is about right, he notices the province won't even say who 'Alberta-approved' covers, and that doesn't add up for him.
Feng · CalgaryLikely votes no
Question 5
Proof of citizenship to vote
In the crowd65.4%yesIn the polls73.3%yes, decided votersThe count58.1%Majority yes
30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
Ballot “Do you support the Government of Alberta introducing a law requiring individuals to provide proof of citizenship, such as a passport, birth certificate or citizenship card, to vote in an Alberta provincial election?” Not binding.
What each answer means, how firmly people hold it, and three localsShow less
Yes
Voters in provincial elections show proof of citizenship, such as a passport, birth certificate or citizenship card.
34 locals
14 of them firmly.
No
Voter ID stays as it is.
10 locals
3 of them firmly.
Will they vote?
62.2%
The engine's turnout for this question, weighted. Each local's chance depends a little on how firmly they hold their answer.
He's a firm conservative who wants fewer immigrants and thinks only citizens should decide who governs.
Rolf · Lake Bonavista, CalgaryLikely votes yes
He has voted People's Party and Conservative, wants fewer immigrants and thinks verifying citizenship is basic diligence.
Ward · CalgaryLikely votes yes
He's for inclusion and more immigration, and he sees this as a barrier that targets newcomers' families.
Omar · CalgaryLikely votes no
Question 6
Provinces pick superior court judges
In the crowd56.6%yesIn the polls59.2%yes, decided votersThe count45.3%Majority no
30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
Ballot “Do you support the Government of Alberta working with the governments of other willing provinces to amend the Canadian Constitution to have provincial governments, and not the federal government, select the justices appointed to provincial King's Bench and Appeal courts?” Binding on the Legislature if most vote yes.
What each answer means, how firmly people hold it, and three localsShow less
Yes
Alberta works with willing provinces toward a constitutional change so provinces, not Ottawa, pick the judges of their superior courts.
26 locals
6 of them firmly.
No
Ottawa keeps appointing those judges.
18 locals
3 of them firmly.
Will they vote?
54.9%
The engine's turnout for this question, weighted. Each local's chance depends a little on how firmly they hold their answer.
He firmly believes in keeping power and money in Alberta and doesn't trust Ottawa to look after Albertans' interests.
Rolf · Lake Bonavista, CalgaryLikely votes yes
After a career watching Ottawa squeeze the energy sector, he wants Alberta to pick its own judges.
Ward · CalgaryLikely votes yes
Busy with his job search, he sees no practical gain in it and leans with his NDP habit toward leaving the system as it is.
Feng · CalgaryLikely votes no
Question 7
Abolish the Senate
In the crowd71.7%yesIn the polls54.2%yes, decided votersThe count47.3%Majority no
30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
Ballot “Do you support the Government of Alberta working with the governments of other willing provinces to amend the Canadian Constitution to abolish the unelected federal Senate?” Binding on the Legislature if most vote yes.
What each answer means, how firmly people hold it, and three localsShow less
Yes
Alberta works with willing provinces toward abolishing the Senate. A yes doesn't abolish it by itself.
38 locals
5 of them firmly.
No
Alberta doesn't pursue abolishing the Senate.
6 locals
0 of them firmly.
Will they vote?
56.2%
The engine's turnout for this question, weighted. Each local's chance depends a little on how firmly they hold their answer.
He's long asked who pays for unelected senators, and abolishing them fits his small-government view.
Rolf · Lake Bonavista, CalgaryLikely votes yes
After decades watching appointed senators weigh in against the oil industry, he's happy to see Alberta push to scrap them.
Ward · CalgaryLikely votes yes
She reads the fine print, and this is a symbolic question that adds cost and changes nothing, since the Constitution needs other provinces to agree.
Lorelei · Edmonton, near the Legislature groundsLikely votes no
Question 8
Opt out of federal programs and keep the money
In the crowd56.1%yesIn the polls50.3%yes, decided votersThe count42.3%Majority no
30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
Ballot “Do you support the Government of Alberta working with the governments of other willing provinces to amend the Canadian Constitution to allow provinces to opt out of federal programs that intrude on provincial jurisdiction such as health care, education, and social services, without a province losing any of the associated federal funding for use in its social programs?” Binding on the Legislature if most vote yes.
What each answer means, how firmly people hold it, and three localsShow less
Yes
Alberta works toward letting provinces opt out of federal programs in health, education and social services and keep the federal money.
25 locals
10 of them firmly.
No
Federal programs and their funding stay as they are.
19 locals
3 of them firmly.
Will they vote?
57%
The engine's turnout for this question, weighted. Each local's chance depends a little on how firmly they hold their answer.
Small government and keeping what you build means Alberta should run its own programs with its own share of the money, and he's sure of it.
Rolf · Lake Bonavista, CalgaryLikely votes yes
After decades watching Ottawa take from Alberta, he'll back anything that keeps the money and control here.
Ward · CalgaryLikely votes yes
He has voted NDP twice and doubts the province would really keep every dollar, but it is a weak call while he worries about his job search.
Feng · CalgaryLikely votes no
Question 9
Provincial laws over federal ones
In the crowd52.3%yesIn the polls58.2%yes, decided votersThe count44.5%Majority no
30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
Ballot “Do you support the Government of Alberta working with the governments of other willing provinces to amend the Canadian Constitution to better protect provincial rights from federal interference by giving a province's laws dealing with provincial or shared areas of constitutional jurisdiction priority over federal laws when the province's laws and federal laws conflict?” Binding on the Legislature if most vote yes.
What each answer means, how firmly people hold it, and three localsShow less
Yes
Alberta works toward provincial laws winning over federal ones where the two conflict in provincial or shared areas.
23 locals
9 of them firmly.
No
Federal law keeps priority where it does now.
21 locals
3 of them firmly.
Will they vote?
59.2%
The engine's turnout for this question, weighted. Each local's chance depends a little on how firmly they hold their answer.
A lifelong small-government Conservative, he wants Alberta keeping what it builds and Ottawa out of its business.
Rolf · Lake Bonavista, CalgaryLikely votes yes
Thirty-five years in Calgary oil and votes for the PPC and Conservatives leave him certain the province should win when Ottawa oversteps.
Ward · CalgaryLikely votes yes
Busy with his job search, he sees this as more constitutional fighting that adds uncertainty when Alberta needs stability.
Feng · CalgaryLikely votes no
Question 10
Remain a province, or start the process toward separation
In the crowd80%remainIn the polls76.1%remain, decided votersThe count74.9%Majority remain
30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
Ballot “Should Alberta remain a province of Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?” Not binding.
What each answer means, how firmly people hold it, and three localsShow less
Remain
Alberta remains a province of Canada.
38 locals
21 of them firmly.
Start the process
The government starts the legal process toward a later, binding referendum on separating from Canada. This vote doesn't decide separation itself.
6 locals
0 of them firmly.
Will they vote?
62.6%
The engine's turnout for this question, weighted. Each local's chance depends a little on how firmly they hold their answer.
He wants low taxes, but he wants his CPP, his health coverage and the dollar steady for Arizona even more, and separation puts all three in doubt.
Rolf · Lake Bonavista, CalgaryLikely votes remain
With his severance running out and a mortgage still on the house, the last thing he wants is years of uncertainty hanging over the economy and the housing market.
Feng · CalgaryLikely votes remain
After thirty-five years in oil watching Ottawa squeeze the sector, he wants the threat on the table as leverage.
Ward · CalgaryLikely votes start the process
Who stays home, and why Simulated
On question 10, 12 of the 44 who can vote are unlikely to. 2 more can't vote: they aren't citizens yet.
Why they're likely to stay home
Family and caring 2Never voted, or rarely 9Not interested in this vote 1
Turnout by life stage
Retired66%
Empty nest78%
School-age children63%
Settled59%
Starting out60%
Student64%
Young children40%
If everyone voted
87.3%
would answer remain on question 10, by first choice, against 80% among likely voters.
Stockroom days and delivery evenings eat his Monday, he skipped both federal votes, and the separation talk only reaches him through the family group chat.
Bao · Forest Lawn, east CalgaryLikely stays home · leans remain
Two working parents and a preschooler, and she has sat out both recent elections, catching the referendum only on late-night X.
Maya · Calgary areaLikely stays home · leans start the process
A warehouse job and a ten-month-old make Monday tight, he votes only sometimes, and he picks up the race from the Sun and the family chat.
Jaxon · Red DeerLikely stays home · leans remain
What was in the air Context
Each local read the campaign's news from dated public sources, and nothing after 15 October.
The polls were gathered first and kept apart. Crowdsim's engine then gave every Alberta local who can vote each of the ten questions as it is on the ballot, with what each answer would mean and whether it binds the government, plus the campaign's news from 17 August to 15 October (no polls) and the cost-of-living backdrop. For each question it picked each local's answer and how firmly they hold it, then scored how likely they are to get to a poll. Each local also carries a measured view on immigration levels, drawn from the Canadian Election Study 2025 for people like them, and the engine is told to keep each person's views as they hold them, not softened. Each answer counts by the local's weight (the Alberta adults most like them in the census) and chance of voting, shared between the two answers by how firm it is; both rules were fitted on 11 past elections, not this one. The unofficial count is beside it, at the top.
Limits
The crowd is small: 44 Alberta locals can vote, so one changed mind moves a share by two to four points.
The engine has a known lean: in backtests on 11 past elections it missed each option's share by about 5 points on average, and it leans left of real voters.
When people hold an answer loosely, the count gives part of their vote to the other answer, which pulls close questions toward 50–50.
The polls set beside it ask the same questions in substance, but on different dates; their 'not sure' answers are left out to compare like with like.
Each line beside a local is the engine's own reason, not a real person's words.
Read it as a picture of why people lean the way they do, not a forecast.
